As the NBA playoffs winds down, the sports betting public keeps their eyes on the hardwood, but we’re only weeks away from NFL news starting to heat up and grabbing bettor’s attention. And one thing sports bettors love almost as much as hitting the side and total on a Monday nighter, is winning their weekly fantasy football matchup.
Online sportsbook such as SPORTSBETTING.com offer up fun “Fantasy Football” type options to play on a daily and weekly basis when the season kicks off, but they also have interesting options available heading into the new season.
With the NFL Draft recently concluded, there are prop odds on the NFL Rookie of the Year, which is wide open. Check the NFL Future Odds.
But Fantasy Football players are also very interested in the new rookie class. Like many things in life, rookies should be taken with a grain of salt come draft day. No, not that draft day but the one you’re likely going to have sometime in August – the Fantasy Football Draft.
You know the drill – the rookies are chiseled and fresh. They look like physical specimens in the prime of their lives. What’s not to like? Well, it usually takes a year or two for rookies – particularly wideouts – to get up to NFL speed. The game moves much faster at the pro level, and in the meantime these rooks have to learn to pick up the blitz or learn a whole new set of routes. The game just moves much faster for them
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The good ones get up to speed in a year or two. The great ones are so far ahead of the game that they burst out of the blocks. Think Adrian Peterson or Matty Ice. To a lesser extent, think DeSean Jackson or Steve Slaton. Picking one of those talents up in a later round can mean the difference between a playoff spot and a shot at the consolation prize.
Looking at this year’s draft crop, who stands out? To identify those players, you have to look at their past performance, of course, but more importantly you need to look at the opportunity they’ve landed in. DeSean Jackson had a great year last year because he landed in a Philly receiving corps that was short Kevin Curtis due to injuries and smack dab in the middle of a scraggly little nest of Greg Lewis, Reggie Brown, and Jason Avant. He got the opportunity because he was the best receiver there – and even with his perceived success, his actual receiving and touchdown totals were fairly pedestrian from a fantasy point of view.
Below are some of the rookies who I think have a shot at fantasy stardom this year. Pick them up, but don’t pick them up too early. Let your opponents reach for Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez in the 3rd round, while you more astutely balance the risk-reward rookie tradeoff.
Later this week I’ll look at a handful of rookies who have the hype, but I don’t think they are going to be in situations that will deliver for owners.
Knowshon Moreno
RB –
Skinny: Landing squarely in the middle of a crowded Denver backfield (not to mention a Denver front office that makes the Raiders look almost sane), Knowshon immediately vaults to the top of the depth charts for two reasons: first, because he really was the most skilled and well-rounded back in the draft; and two, because he will be given full opportunity to demonstrate that his coach wasn’t spending first rounders like a drunken sailor. Picking an RB at #12 when your team fell apart last year because of it’s (lack of) Defense gives the team some extra incentive to show that the pick wasn’t as dumb a move as the rest of the moves made this offseason.
Beanie Wells
RB –
Skinny: With Edge out of town, the Cards backfield consists of Beanie and last year’s rookie Tim Hightower, who showed flashes last year but flagged down the stretch. Don’t expect a lot of yards out of either rusher, but I do expect Beanie to carry the lunchbox at the goalline and should get a respectable number of TDs (I predict 8 to 12). If the Cards can figure out a way for two bruisers with ham hocks for hands to get incorporated into a spread-type Offense, this could be a dangerous team again.
Jason Maclin
WR –
Skinny: Many teams had Maclin as their top-rated wideout in the 2009 Draft, ahead of Michael Crabtree. Maclin certainly landed in a pass-happy offense with a howitzer-equipped QB behind center and a strong running game. But as mentioned above, even DeSean Jackson didn’t generate true WR1-level numbers last year, and I expect Maclin to get slightly less than
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Brandon Pettigrew
TE –
Skinny: Tight End is a tough position in Fantasy. You either drop a pick in Round 3 or 4 to get Jason Witten, Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez) or you pick over the detritus that is Tony Sheffler, Owen Jacobs or Bo Scaife late in the game. Pettigrew was the top-rated TE in the draft, and lands into a fairly good situation for him. The Lions are going to be playing from behind a lot, they have a QB with a gun for an arm, and have one of the best deep threats in the game in Calvin Johnson. Pettigrew should settle in a nice outlet for Matt Stafford and could pick up some short-yardage touchdowns as teams focus on the Stafford-Johnson combination.
Cornelius Ingram
TE –
Skinny: Don’t jump on Ingram late, but he is my sleeper pick this year. Philly’s offense is a stout one, and they have always tried to rely on their Tight Ends for red-zone scores, though LJ Smith has let them down in that regard over the last two years. With LJ off to greener pastures, the Eagles feature Brent Celek and rookie Ingram. Both are pass-catching TE’s with room to improve in the blocking department. Ingram is coming off a major injury that caused him to drop all the way to the 5th round, but if he had been healthy he was widely predicted to be the #1 TE in the draft. If his knee holds up, he could be a great Tier 2 TE.
It’s not too early to start doing your homework for the upcoming season. I’ll keep you updated as we head for the new NFL season.
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Tuesday, June 2, 2009 |
